Tim Pickering was featured in a April 7th 2024 Special to the Financial Post.

Like many things within financial markets, the link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. As an example, it is generally understood that central banks raise rates in an attempt to control inflation. Yet what is less understood is that raising rates only affects our spending, the so-called “demand-pull inflation” associated with manufactured goods, whereas it does little to control the “cost-push inflation” associated with commodity prices and wages.

Central banks can’t control commodity prices or their supply since raising rates neither increases short-term commodity supplies nor attracts long-term commodity infrastructure investments.

Another rarely made link is the one between technology and commodities, or new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels and drill bits. But the link is strong and growing stronger, and it may be an important factor in the extension of the current commodity cycle that started in 2020 — cycles that typically last 10 years.

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Fund aims to deliver noncorrelated returns, “crisis alpha”, and inflation protection in a new corporate class structure.

CALGARY (February 21, 2024) – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announces the launch of the CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class (“the Fund”), a systematic, trend-following, multi-strategy Fund that seeks to provide returns that are uncorrelated with other alternative strategies and fixed income, while also being negatively correlated to equities.

“We are excited to partner with CI GAM in bringing access to the Auspice flagship fund, the most tenured in its category in Canada, and one of few funds to deliver positive returns with negative equity correlation alongside actual commodity exposure” said Tim Pickering, the Auspice Chief Investment Officer and co-founder.

Read more here.

Decarbonization, deglobalization and demographics will help keep inflation higher than historical standards.

Tim Pickering was featured in a Dec 31st 2023 Special to the Financial Post.

"We believe we are on the doorstep of a shift where inflation is clearly not transitory nor persistent, but structural.

The inflation migration has likely only started in commodities following generational catalysts. It is being led by scarcity of resources and workers as demand by the developing world and “build back better” of rich nations exceeds the delicate and narrow supply margin.

Whereas China dominated the narrative of the early 2000s commodity cycle, the three Ds and India will likely lead this decade’s cycle. The demand for commodities and wage pressures is a longer-term shift that can’t be ignored."

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Auspice is sponsoring the first ever Fin-tech case competition at the Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, with Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo).

The UofA Business Finance Association and the Business Technology Management Club are teaming up to bring the first-ever Fin-tech case competition.

An expert panel of judges includes professionals from Auspice as well as esteemed professors. This competition is an opportunity for students to sharpen their presentation and teamwork skills while building their network with industry insiders.

Tim Pickering was featured in the September 6th, 2023 edition of Wealth Professional

“The North American fires and hot dry summer have put pressure on an already-pressured commodity supply – from oil to lumber, minerals to grains,” says Tim Pickering, founder, president, and CIO of Auspice Capital. “This, along with massive demand in the fastest-growing middle class market and now largest global population - India - will drive the second wave of the commodity supercycle.”

“The reality is that a lack of broad commodity capital expenditures starting over a decade ago has led to a fragile supply that will continue to be interrupted by things like weather-related events – fire, floods or drought,”

Tim Pickering was featured in the Saturday July 29th edition of the Financial Post.

“Do average citizens feel like daily expenses have gotten cheaper? Not a chance. Groceries cost much more than last year, up 9.1 per cent, which is higher than the increase in May. Core measures of inflation — which strip out volatility — have not eased. Mortgage interest costs were up more than 30 per cent from June 2022.”

“Here is what the central banks won’t tell you, there are two types of inflation: one which they have some control over and one which they do not. Raising rates may be effective for “demand-pull” inflation, constraining the price of services and manufactured goods. By raising rates, we all spend less. However, it is not effective for “cost-push” inflation, which is driven by commodities and wages. They don’t have this lever.”

Auspice Celebrates Success and Stampede!

On July 10th 2023 the Auspice team hosted a Stampede party at the Wildhorse Tent with over one hundred in attendance. Thank you to all our friends, partners, and clients for being part of an incredible event and awesome journey over the past few years.

See picture gallery here.

CALGARY, Alberta, March 02, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (Auspice) today announced the launch of Auspice Diversified Trust (ADT) and Auspice One Fund Trust (AOFT) as public alternative mutual funds that can be invested in by retail investors. The funds, previously only available to institutional and accredited investors on an exempt basis, will maintain their existing track records, including the 16+ year track record of the firm’s longest standing and flagship fund, Auspice Diversified Trust.

“We are excited to launch ADT and AOFT as two publicly traded alternative mutual funds. They were both previously offered on an exempt basis and can now be bought by all retail investors. ADT and AOFT are also well positioned to generate positive returns in this environment with interest rates, inflation, and volatility no longer compressed” said Tim Pickering, President of Auspice. “While there are a number of resource equity funds, there are few funds that provide direct exposure to commodities in Canada, an even fewer managers that have the tenure and track record of Auspice.”

CI Global Asset Management is expanding the range of choice for Canadian investors once more with the introduction of three new ETFs. Among those is the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (CCOM), Canada’s very first multi-commodity ETF launched in partnership with Auspice Capital.

For Tim Pickering, the founder and CIO of Auspice Capital, it’s been a long time coming. “The demand for commodity-based products on a global basis has been significant for a long time, especially in the last few years since COVID hit and inflation became a very relevant issue,” Pickering told Wealth Professional in an interview. “We think it's far, far overdue that a broad commodity product like this, especially one with a long successful track record, exists for Canadian investors in Canada.”

CI Global Asset Management (“CI GAM”) today launched three new investment options – two ESG-focused mandates offering both mutual fund and ETF series, and a commodity-focused liquid alternative ETF.

The CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (“CCOM”) seeks to replicate the performance of the Auspice Broad Commodity Excess Return Index (the “Index”) by investing in financial instruments, including futures contracts and derivatives. The Index uses a quantitative methodology to track a diversified portfolio of commodity futures contracts, or components, across three sectors: agriculture, energy and metals.

“This ETF launch is especially timely, given that commodities are benefiting from supply constraints combined with heightened demand driven in part by infrastructure spending and the transition to a greener and more sustainable society,” Mr. Ferreira said. “As a result, exposure to commodities holds the potential to add inflation protection to investors’ portfolios.