The two basic ingredients required for a commodity supercycle are both at play right now

Tim Pickering was featured in the Saturday July 29th edition of the Financial Post.

“Do average citizens feel like daily expenses have gotten cheaper? Not a chance. Groceries cost much more than last year, up 9.1 per cent, which is higher than the increase in May. Core measures of inflation — which strip out volatility — have not eased. Mortgage interest costs were up more than 30 per cent from June 2022.”

“Here is what the central banks won’t tell you, there are two types of inflation: one which they have some control over and one which they do not. Raising rates may be effective for “demand-pull” inflation, constraining the price of services and manufactured goods. By raising rates, we all spend less. However, it is not effective for “cost-push” inflation, which is driven by commodities and wages. They don’t have this lever.”