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Will the tech boom feed the commodity cycle?
Will the tech boom feed the commodity cycle?

Tim Pickering was featured in a April 7th 2024 Special to the Financial Post.

Like many things within financial markets, the link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. As an example, it is generally understood that central banks raise rates in an attempt to control inflation. Yet what is less understood is that raising rates only affects our spending, the so-called “demand-pull inflation” associated with manufactured goods, whereas it does little to control the “cost-push inflation” associated with commodity prices and wages.

Central banks can’t control commodity prices or their supply since raising rates neither increases short-term commodity supplies nor attracts long-term commodity infrastructure investments.

Another rarely made link is the one between technology and commodities, or new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels and drill bits. But the link is strong and growing stronger, and it may be an important factor in the extension of the current commodity cycle that started in 2020 — cycles that typically last 10 years.

Read More.

Auspice and CI Global Asset Management Expand Partnership with Launch of CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class

Fund aims to deliver noncorrelated returns, “crisis alpha”, and inflation protection in a new corporate class structure.

CALGARY (February 21, 2024) – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announces the launch of the CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class (“the Fund”), a systematic, trend-following, multi-strategy Fund that seeks to provide returns that are uncorrelated with other alternative strategies and fixed income, while also being negatively correlated to equities.

“We are excited to partner with CI GAM in bringing access to the Auspice flagship fund, the most tenured in its category in Canada, and one of few funds to deliver positive returns with negative equity correlation alongside actual commodity exposure” said Tim Pickering, the Auspice Chief Investment Officer and co-founder.

Read more here.

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How the '3 Ds' are leading to a structural shift in inflation

Decarbonization, deglobalization and demographics will help keep inflation higher than historical standards.

Tim Pickering was featured in a Dec 31st 2023 Special to the Financial Post.

"We believe we are on the doorstep of a shift where inflation is clearly not transitory nor persistent, but structural.

The inflation migration has likely only started in commodities following generational catalysts. It is being led by scarcity of resources and workers as demand by the developing world and “build back better” of rich nations exceeds the delicate and narrow supply margin.

Whereas China dominated the narrative of the early 2000s commodity cycle, the three Ds and India will likely lead this decade’s cycle. The demand for commodities and wage pressures is a longer-term shift that can’t be ignored."

Read More.

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AIMCo Case Competition November 3rd and 5th, 2023

Auspice is sponsoring the first ever Fin-tech case competition at the Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, with Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo).

The UofA Business Finance Association and the Business Technology Management Club are teaming up to bring the first-ever Fin-tech case competition.

An expert panel of judges includes professionals from Auspice as well as esteemed professors. This competition is an opportunity for students to sharpen their presentation and teamwork skills while building their network with industry insiders.

Will Canada's wildfire calamities accelerate the commodity supercycle?

Tim Pickering was featured in the September 6th, 2023 edition of Wealth Professional

“The North American fires and hot dry summer have put pressure on an already-pressured commodity supply – from oil to lumber, minerals to grains,” says Tim Pickering, founder, president, and CIO of Auspice Capital. “This, along with massive demand in the fastest-growing middle class market and now largest global population - India - will drive the second wave of the commodity supercycle.”

“The reality is that a lack of broad commodity capital expenditures starting over a decade ago has led to a fragile supply that will continue to be interrupted by things like weather-related events – fire, floods or drought,”

The two basic ingredients required for a commodity supercycle are both at play right now

Tim Pickering was featured in the Saturday July 29th edition of the Financial Post.

“Do average citizens feel like daily expenses have gotten cheaper? Not a chance. Groceries cost much more than last year, up 9.1 per cent, which is higher than the increase in May. Core measures of inflation — which strip out volatility — have not eased. Mortgage interest costs were up more than 30 per cent from June 2022.”

“Here is what the central banks won’t tell you, there are two types of inflation: one which they have some control over and one which they do not. Raising rates may be effective for “demand-pull” inflation, constraining the price of services and manufactured goods. By raising rates, we all spend less. However, it is not effective for “cost-push” inflation, which is driven by commodities and wages. They don’t have this lever.”

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Auspice 2023 Stampede Party

Auspice Celebrates Success and Stampede!

On July 10th 2023 the Auspice team hosted a Stampede party at the Wildhorse Tent with over one hundred in attendance. Thank you to all our friends, partners, and clients for being part of an incredible event and awesome journey over the past few years.

See picture gallery here.

Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. launches Auspice Diversified Trust and Auspice One Fund Trust as Public Alternative Mutual Funds

CALGARY, Alberta, March 02, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (Auspice) today announced the launch of Auspice Diversified Trust (ADT) and Auspice One Fund Trust (AOFT) as public alternative mutual funds that can be invested in by retail investors. The funds, previously only available to institutional and accredited investors on an exempt basis, will maintain their existing track records, including the 16+ year track record of the firm’s longest standing and flagship fund, Auspice Diversified Trust.

“We are excited to launch ADT and AOFT as two publicly traded alternative mutual funds. They were both previously offered on an exempt basis and can now be bought by all retail investors. ADT and AOFT are also well positioned to generate positive returns in this environment with interest rates, inflation, and volatility no longer compressed” said Tim Pickering, President of Auspice. “While there are a number of resource equity funds, there are few funds that provide direct exposure to commodities in Canada, an even fewer managers that have the tenure and track record of Auspice.”

Why Canada's first multi-commodity ETF is 'far, far overdue'

CI Global Asset Management is expanding the range of choice for Canadian investors once more with the introduction of three new ETFs. Among those is the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (CCOM), Canada’s very first multi-commodity ETF launched in partnership with Auspice Capital.

For Tim Pickering, the founder and CIO of Auspice Capital, it’s been a long time coming. “The demand for commodity-based products on a global basis has been significant for a long time, especially in the last few years since COVID hit and inflation became a very relevant issue,” Pickering told Wealth Professional in an interview. “We think it's far, far overdue that a broad commodity product like this, especially one with a long successful track record, exists for Canadian investors in Canada.”

CI Global Asset Management Expands Fund and ETF Lineup With ESG and Commodities Mandates

CI Global Asset Management (“CI GAM”) today launched three new investment options – two ESG-focused mandates offering both mutual fund and ETF series, and a commodity-focused liquid alternative ETF.

The CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (“CCOM”) seeks to replicate the performance of the Auspice Broad Commodity Excess Return Index (the “Index”) by investing in financial instruments, including futures contracts and derivatives. The Index uses a quantitative methodology to track a diversified portfolio of commodity futures contracts, or components, across three sectors: agriculture, energy and metals.

“This ETF launch is especially timely, given that commodities are benefiting from supply constraints combined with heightened demand driven in part by infrastructure spending and the transition to a greener and more sustainable society,” Mr. Ferreira said. “As a result, exposure to commodities holds the potential to add inflation protection to investors’ portfolios.

CI Global Asset Management Files Preliminary Prospectus in Partnership with Auspice for the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF

Auspice is proud to share that we have partnered with CI to launch the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (Ticker "CCOM") with a September 27th targeted launch. See the press release here for more.

Auspice Broad Commodity is currently available via the NYSE listed Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity ("COM") ETF and has been a top performer in its category. Notably, the underlying Auspice Broad Commodity Index (ER) has outperformed benchmarks GSCI ER and BCOM by 4.0% and 3.3% annualized with roughly half the volatility and drawdown since 2010 inception. We are proud to partner with CI in bringing this top performing commodity strategy to Canadian Investors. We are also more constructive on the commodity outlook than ever, with the recent pullback potentially offering an attractive entry point for investors. See this month's blog for more.

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Global Energy Consumption and The Ukraine War

Danielle Smith hosts Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital Advisors LTD, for an in-depth discussion on the commodities market in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Canadian Energy Centre - Canada’s ‘huge opportunity’ as Europe, South Korea to label natural gas green. LNG from Canada can help the world move faster to reduce emissions.

“Canadian energy companies have demonstrated leadership in developing greener energy infrastructure.”

“LNG is not a 100 percent solution to our climate problem, but it gets us significantly closer to our goals and should be prioritized versus relying on foreign countries with higher emissions and poor track records.” - Tim Pickering, Auspice Capital President and CIO.

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Climate Transformed - Commodity Investing in the age of ESG and Inflation.

Paul Krake, host of Climate Transformed, chats with Brennan Basnicki, partner at Auspice Capital Advisors, about how investing in commodities fits within an ESG framework as well as whether commodities are an ideal hedge against inflation.

Are futures the way forward for ESG-minded commodity investors?

“People have this idea that commodities and ESG are just diametrically opposed, and we get some of that. We've always said producing commodities, particularly in the mining and extraction business, is inherently an invasive process,” Auspice Capital President and CIO Tim Pickering, told Wealth Professional. “But the question is, how do you go about gaining that commodity exposure as an investor?”

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AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED WINS BEST MANAGED FUTURES (CTA) UNDER $1BN.

The HFM US Performance Awards 2021 took place on the evening of November 4 at the stunning Gotham Hall, New York, bringing together the US hedge fund industry to connect. The awards celebrated hedge fund, CTA and fund of hedge fund performance, encompassing the whole breadth of hedge fund strategy, from credit and equity to macro and managed futures.

We are proud to share that Auspice Diversified was selected as winner of the managed futures (CTA) under $1bn category.

Managed futures’ roots aids Auspice’s commodity ETF

The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF, COM, is one of the only commodity ETFs to have a five-star Morningstar rating and has outperformed all other broad commodity ETFs with significantly less volatility and drawdown.

“Borrowing the trend-following approach from our CTA/managed futures background, the strategy has produced far better risk-adjusted results alongside superior long-term absolute returns by exiting markets that are weak yet participating in commodity upside based on the merits of an individual commodity market — not a broad shotgun approach. Commodity markets are simply too unique for that approach to outperform long-term.”

Commodities hedge funds back in vogue after years of outflows

Auspice Founder Tim Pickering was picked up by Reuters alongside Pierre Andurand, Odey Asset Management and other industry legends.

“Auspice, with a 70% allocation to commodities, more than doubled its assets in a year, from around C$200 million ($165 million) to C$500 million. Tim Pickering, the fund's chief investment officer, said commodities will remain a popular bet as investors seek insurance against inflation.”

Auspice Capital soars on the commodities rally

Canadian commodities shop Auspice Capital is riding the recovery in commodities to new highs. Auspice is now up 15% across its trading programs year to date through the end of April, according to a performance update for investors reviewed by Opalesque.

Auspice's positive performance builds on the momentum that started last year. The fund ended 2020 up 18.46%..

ETF of the Week: Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (COM)

ETF Trends CEO Tom Lydon discussed the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (COM) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe on the MoneyLife Show.

“Commodities may provide a valuable diversifying component to any long-term investment portfolio. Why commodities? Inflation protection. Commodities represent a significant portion of the CPI’s volatility, resulting in a positive and often outsized response to inflation.”

IT'S AN EXCITING TIME TO BE A COMMODITIES FOCUSED MANAGER

Commodities potentially stand on the cusp of their most exciting period in 25 years

Auspice announces strategic partnership with Walter Global Asset Management

We have proudly partnered with Walter GAM, a company that shares our entrepreneurial vision for alternative investing, in a strategic relationship that will help accelerate our growth at this critical time of opportunity.

Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity COM ETF reaches 5 star

The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity COM ETF which tracks the Auspice Broad Commodity ER Index has reached 5-star status by Morningstar (here) on a 5 and 10 year basis. More info about the Auspice strategy and Direxion linked fund.

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AUSPICE ANNOUNCES INVESTOR WARNING IN RESPECT OF CCX CLOSURE MARKET PRICE DIFFERENTIAL FROM NET ASSET VALUE

Toronto, Ontario – April 2, 2020 - Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) is providing an update in respect of the previously announced termination of the Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (“CCX”), which trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) under the ticker symbol CCX, on or about May 22, 2020, and the delisting of units of CCX from the TSX on or about May 19, 2020.
As previously indicated, in accordance with applicable securities laws, no further direct subscriptions for units of CCX have been permitted since March 12, 2020.
AUSPICE IS CONCERNED THAT INVESTORS ARE BUYING UNITS OF CCX ON THE TSX AT A TRADING PRICE PER UNIT OF CCX THAT IS WELL ABOVE THE NET ASSET VALUE (“NAV”) PER UNIT OF CCX.

Link to full press release here.

AUSPICE ANNOUNCES CLOSURE OF CCX ETF

Toronto, Ontario – March 12, 2020 – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announced today that it will be terminating Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (the “ETF”) (ticker symbol: CCX) effective at the close of business on or about May 22, 2020 (the “Termination Date”).

Link to full press release here.

Direxion fund tracking Auspice Broad Commodity reaches 5-star

The Direxion Indexed Commodity & Income Strategy Fund which tracks the Auspice Broad Commodity ER Index has reached 5-star status by Morningstar (here) on a 5 and 10 year basis. More info about the Auspice strategy and Direxion linked fund.

Want to invest like an oil trader? Here's how

Auspice offers investors the purest exposure to the discounted price of Canadian oil through its Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (CCX.TO). The fund tracks the company’s Canadian Crude Index, described as “a simple, transparent and liquid benchmark for oil produced in Canada.”

AUSPICE ANNOUNCES CLOSURE OF ETF

Toronto, Ontario – January 16, 2018 – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announced today that it will be terminating Canadian Natural Gas Index ETF (the “ETF”) (ticker symbol: GAS) effective at the close of business on or about March 23, 2018 (the “Termination Date”).

Tim Pickering in Benefits & Pension Monitor

Capital versus Risk Allocation: What Most Investors Get Wrong in Alternatives.

Direxion Launches Quantitative, Rules-Based Commodity ETF

Direxion has launched the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (Ticker: COM), which seeks to provide total return that exceeds that of the Auspice Broad Commodity Index. The rules-based index attempts to capture trends in 12 diversified commodity markets using a quantitative methodology.

 

Commentaries and Performance Archive

The January 2023 and preceding Commentaries and Fact Sheets published on this web page were published prior to February 28th, 2023, when The Auspice Diversified Trust and the Auspice One Fund Trust (collectively, the Funds) were offered via offering memorandum only and the Funds were not a reporting issuers. The expenses of the Funds would have been higher during such prior period had the Funds been subject to the additional regulatory requirements applicable to a reporting issuer. Auspice obtained exemptive relief on behalf of the Funds to permit the disclosure of the prior performance data for the Funds for the time period prior to it becoming a reporting issuer.

Featured
AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: MARCH 2024

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 0.04% in March.

MARCH AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity gained 2.14% in March.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: MARCH 2024

The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 1.57% in March.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: FEBRUARY 2024

Auspice Diversified Trust gained 2.95% in February.

FEBRUARY AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity lost 0.57% in February.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: FEBRUARY 2024

The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 2.13% in February.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: JANUARY 2024

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 1.18% in January.

JANUARY AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity gained 0.03% in January.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: JANUARY 2024

The Auspice One Fund Trust lost 3.21% in January.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: DECEMBER 2023

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 0.49% in December.

DECEMBER AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity lost 2.89% in December.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: DECEMBER 2023

The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 2.43% in December.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: NOVEMBER 2023

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 3.35% in November.

NOVEMBER AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity lost 1.85% in November.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: NOVEMBER 2023

The Auspice One Fund Trust lost 0.75% in November.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: OCTOBER 2023

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 3.36% in October.

OCTOBER AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity lost 2.04% in October.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: OCTOBER 2023

The Auspice One Fund Trust lost 3.64% in October.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: SEPTEMBER 2023

Auspice Diversified Trust gained 3.37% in September.

SEPTEMBER AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity gained 0.61% in September.

AUSPICE ONE FUND TRUST FUND PROFILE: SEPTEMER 2023

The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 1.75% in September.

AUSPICE DIVERSIFIED TRUST COMMENTARY: AUGUST 2023

Auspice Diversified Trust lost 0.80% in August.

AUGUST AUSPICE BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY

Auspice Broad Commodity lost 1.09% in August.

 

Research

Research is the foundation of what we do. We understand that markets evolve and that we need to adapt. We engage in a process of continuous evaluation and research to identify sources of returns and the methods with which to effectively capture them.

The contents on this web page were published prior to February 28th, 2023, when The Auspice Diversified Trust and the Auspice One Fund Trust (collectively, the Funds) were offered via offering memorandum only and the Funds were not reporting issuers. The expenses of the Funds would have been higher during such prior period had the Funds been subject to the additional regulatory requirements applicable to a reporting issuer. Auspice obtained exemptive relief on behalf of the Funds to permit the disclosure of the prior performance data for the Funds for the time period prior to it becoming a reporting issuer.

 
 

Commodity Investing in the Age of ESG and Inflation

November 8, 2021

 
 

Institutional Use of Commodities & CTAs. Case Study: US Pensions & Ontario Teachers’

November 1, 2021

 
 

Positioning for the 2020s Commodity Bull Market

 
Commodities: Portfolio Benefits-Tactical Edge versus Resource Equity

Commodities: Portfolio Benefits-Tactical Edge versus Resource Equity

 

Commodities: Canadian Crude - You are Missing an Opportunity

 
 

Commodities: Portfolio Benefits - Is there a real black gold?

 
Commodities: Portfolio Benefits-Is there a real black gold?

Commodities: Portfolio Benefits-Is there a real black gold?

 

Canadian Crude - Opportunities in the discount

 
Canadian Crude - Opportunities in the discount

Canadian Crude - Opportunities in the discount

 

Commodities Update ending 2018: When is the right time? Benefits and Timing the Cycle

 
Commodities Update ending 2018: When is the right time? Benefits and Timing the Cycle

Commodities Update ending 2018: When is the right time? Benefits and Timing the Cycle

 

Canadian Crude - Trading the WCS Spread

 
Canadian Crude Trading the WCS Spread

Canadian Crude Trading the WCS Spread

 

Canadian Oil Is On Sale

 
Canadian Oil Is On Sale

Canadian Oil Is On Sale

 

Canadian Oil: The Importance And The Opportunity

 
 

Leadership Report: Canadian Oil Value, Liquidity and Hedging

 
Leadership Report: Canadian Oil Value, Liquidity and Hedging

Leadership Report: Canadian Oil Value, Liquidity and Hedging

 

Natural gas and GAS performance to June 2017

 
Natural Gas and GAS performance to June 2017

Natural Gas and GAS performance to June 2017

 

Natural gas and GAS performance to May 2017

 
Natural Gas and GAS performance to May 2017

Natural Gas and GAS performance to May 2017

 

Crude Performance and CCI outperformance to Feb 2017

 
Crude Performance and CCI outperformance to Feb 2017

Crude Performance and CCI outperformance to Feb 2017

 

Canadian Oil Pure Play

 
Canadian Oil Pure Play Research

Canadian Oil Pure Play Research

 

Auspice Canadian Oil Sands Facts 2015

Auspice, 2015

Myths about the Canadian Oil Sands continue to abound. Click here to read some of the facts on our industry, with third-party information and quotations.

Commodity and Inflation

Auspice, 2015

*Click to read

*Click to read

 

Why the Canadian Crude Index ETF

*Click to read

*Click to read

August, 2015

Current Crude Oil prices may offer opportunities for investors with a long-term view. Please click the image to read our article: “Why CCX now versus other Oil ETFs”

 

CTA VAI™

 

The CTA Value Added Index

White Paper - Auspice, Update to June 2015

*Click to read

*Click to read

 

Commodity Investing: Alpha, Beta, & Something In Between

Published Benefits And Pension Monitor - Auspice, June 2011 

 



Videos & Podcasts

October 8th, 2023

Innovation and Evolution.

See this 1min clip on Innovation and Evolution at Auspice from Auspice Founder/CIO Tim Pickering at a panel discussion in Philadelphia (full panel episode available in second video below).

 

September 28th, 2023

Talking Commodities, Stacking, and Systematic w/ Auspice, Newfound & Campbell.

Is 60/40 Dead? How are allocators updating their portfolios for this environment?

Auspice Founder/CIO Tim Pickering, Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, and Brian Meloon from Campbell and Company discuss Commodities, Return Stacking, and Systematic on a live panel discussion in Philly.

Watch on YouTube here.

 

August 29th, 2022

Commodities, CTAs & The LME Scandal.

In this podcast Tim talks all about trend-following and commodities. Tim shares why trend-following can serve as a great diversifier to stocks and bonds, and why it’s a great way to play the current commodity cycle. He ever shares his thoughts on the LME fiasco earlier this year and what his reaction was when he saw his trades were cancelled.

Watch on YouTube here or select a podcast platform here.

 

July 14th, 2022

Current State of Energy Markets and the Commodity Supercycle - July 14th, 2022.

In this 10min interview Auspice Capital Advisors Founder and CIO Tim Pickering discusses the current state of energy and commodity markets amongst a longer term commodity supercycle. Tim discusses:

  • Inflation and governments raising rates.

  • Declining CapEx and the structural imbalance in commodities.

  • Energy companies’ role in the greening of our economy.

  • Canada’s role.

  • Long term commodity views.

A great, succinct summary that clearly covers the key themes driving commodity markets today!


May 25th, 2022

Navigating through Inflation and Volatility with Alternative Investments

Hear a panel of experts’ views on Navigating through Inflation and Volatility with Alternative Investments during a conversation where they shared their opinions on inflation, volatility and commodities.

Panel of experts:

  • Tim Pickering, Founder and CIO, Auspice Capital

  • Andrey Omelchak, President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Management

  • René Fournier, CIO, Walter Group

Moderator: Charles Lemay, Partner, Walter Global Asset Management

April 29th, 2022

Institutional Technical Analysis: Research, Trading, Portfolio Management & Allocation.

This Presentation was part of the 2022 CMT Annual Symposium on April 28th-29th in Washington, DC.

Technical Analysis is a universally applicable discipline. Auspice Partner Brennan Basnicki and panelists share their perspectives on how the tools of technical analysis have been applied across every role in the financial services industry in this dynamic panel discussion. Whether sitting on the buy side, sell side, or as a market maker, these three panelists have helped their firms and clients identify trends, manage risk, and capture alpha. The broad reach of their collective experience will highlight the many time frames, asset classes, and industry roles that are better informed through the application of our craft.

April 25th, 2022

Understanding Commodity Investing.

On the latest episode of the CFA Society Calgary Podcast “Calgary Connects” Tim Pickering, Founder, CIO and Lead Portfolio Manager at Auspice Capital, joins for a conversation that dives into commodities and commodity investing.

Host Matthew Andrade and Tim Pickering discuss what commodities are and how they fit into a portfolio, convergent vs. divergent return streams, how risk plays into decision making, and much more.

April 10th, 2022

Why Commodities & Why Now.

Auspice Founder/CIO Tim Pickering is featured for a second time on #1 industry podcast "Top Traders Unplugged". In this episode, Tim and host Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discuss:

  • Why commodities play such an important role in a portfolio

  • How to create a strategy that adapts to different volatility regimes

  • Why they created The Auspice Broad Commodity Index

  • The role and importance of ESG in commodities trading

  • How commodity futures can be used as a risk mitigation tool

  • Why Ukraine is so important for commodities

  • How to effectively protect yourself against inflation

And much more.

April 4th, 2022

Portfolio benefits with commodities futures.

Gavin Graham and Auspice Founder/CIO Tim Pickering discuss real diversification, hedging inflation, avoiding the market crash, ESG benefits of futures and what sets up a commodities super cycle.


December 15th, 2021

Auspice has released a series of two minute explainer videos to provide an overview of Auspice commodity to complete solutions.

November 19th, 2021

Auspice Founder/CIO Tim Pickering and Direxion Head of Alternatives Ed Egilinsky explore key insights and actionable strategies on these topics and more:

  • When transitory inflation gets sticky

  • The real price of infrastructure and alternative energy initiatives

  • Why has gold failed to shine?

  • When investing in commodities, sometimes “cash is king”


July 14th, 2021

One of our favorites - Jason Buck hosts Tim Pickering on episode 27 of the Mutiny Fund podcast. You don’t want to miss this one!

June 15, 2021

There are two ingredients required for a commodity supercycle: an extended period of underinvestment in supply, and a generational demand shock. Today we have both.

As interest rates and inflation rise, and the forward prospects of the 60/40 portfolio are compressed, institutional and retail investors are increasingly taking note. Our first 2min explainer video provides a brief introduction to this key investment theme.

May 6, 2021

ETF Trends' CEO, Tom Lydon, along with Ed Egilinsky, Head of Alternatives at Direxion and Tim Pickering, Founder, President and CIO at Auspice, discuss:

  • Expectations for extraordinary global growth in a post-vaccine world

  • The state of supply for oil and other commodities

  • The role of commodities under the cloud of accelerating inflation

  • A strategic, adaptive approach to whip-sawing commodity markets

Accepted for one hour of CFP/CIMA CE credit for live and on-demand attendees

CFA Institute members are encouraged to self-document their continuing professional development activities in their online CE tracker. For video click image below, or here.

March 24, 2021

Given the outperformance of equities in the last decade, the return potential and portfolio diversification benefits of commodities are underappreciated, with a potential super-cycle of opportunity ahead.

Hear about the various ways of adding commodity exposure, their benefits and risks. This includes resource equities, commodity benchmark indexes, tactical strategies and CTA/Managed Futures. The panel also discusses the commodity sector from a cyclical perspective and examine the potential opportunity at the current time.

November 30, 2020

Join MIJ for a fascinating discussion with Auspice Capital’s founder Tim Pickering to learn about the importance of maps, process and tinkering at the edges. Tim’s unique ability to simplify complex topics like “diworsification” and skew have been honed from years of interaction with some of Canada’s leading investment institutions. Podcast available online below or on your favorite player: Spotify, Apple, Stitcher.

September 22, 2020

Tim Pickering is special guest on The Derivative on the RCM Alternatives podcast. Here’s a little preview, or you can listen to the whole thing on your favorite player: Spotify. Apple. Stitcher.

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July 25, 2019

Tim Pickering, chief investment officer of Auspice Capital and manager of the Canadian Crude Oil ETF, explains where he's seeing increased demand for Canadian crude.

Oct 6, 2017

Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Investors joins Global News, calling the Energy East cancellation “a real blow” to Alberta and Canadian economies.

Nov 22, 2016

Tim Pickering, Founder, President & CIO of Auspice joins Bloomberg TV Canada's Mark Bunting to discuss how Trump presidency, pipelines and OPEC will drive Canadian crude oil prices.

January 5, 2016

Tim Pickering talks to CBC about the Canadian Crude Index.

October 14, 2015

Paul Waldie talks with Auspice Capital's Tim Pickering about the Canadian oil industry

Apr 21, 2015 

Auspice Capital says its new Canadian Crude Index "represents a simple, transparent and liquid benchmark for oil that is produced in Canada." Founder and President Tim Pickering tells us about his plan to launch an ETF based on the bellwether.

December 23, 2014

Tim Pickering, President & CIO, Auspice Capital, joins BNN to offer insight on investing in managed futures and a look at Horizons 'best performing Canadian-listed ETF".

 
 
 

Top Traders Interview

December 21, 2014

What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?

Tim Pickering chats with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen from Top Traders Unplugged. 

 
 

Tim Pickering: A Case for the CTA Value Added Index

December 6, 2013

Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital discusses the CTA Value Added Index and makes a case that it is evident, historically, not only in times of financial crisis.  Download on iTunes

 

Ep. 11: Trend Following - Tim Pickering interviewed by Michael Covel

April 27, 2012

Michael Covel talks to Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices. 

 

Tim Pickering Discusses Managed Futures ETF with BNN

December 10, 2010

 
 
 

Alt Invest Blog

Featured
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The Tech Boom to Further Feed the Commodity Cycle.

The link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. Rarely made is the link of tech and commodities. They seem juxtaposed at opposites ends of the investment spectrum - new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels, and drill-bits. However, we believe the link is strong and growing stronger and may be an important factor in the extension of the commodity cycle that started in 2020, only two years into a typical commodity cycle length. Read more.

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“Let Them Eat Corn Flakes” – Agflation Update

The pain consumers have felt from inflation is significant. Amid rising food inflation, Kellogg’s CEO suggests poor families should “eat corn flakes for dinner”. These comments, broadly insensitive, speak to the severity of the real inflation consumers are facing, much of which is masked by headline inflation metrics. 

There has been a surge in freight rates and the World Container Index. As discussed in the January 2024 Auspice Blog, the number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. This is likely a key driver in the increase of freight rates, and with the spike just commencing recently in 2024, we likely are on the precipice of higher prices for both raw and manufactured goods. Read more.

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Not a World War, but a World at War.

The number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. For people under 80 - a large majority of the world's population - we have never lived in a world with so many different conflicts between countries and amongst non state groups such as terrorists’ cells and drugs cartels.

You might think the world is always violent, wars and conflicts are always happening somewhere. This moment can’t be any special. That would be wrong. Read more.

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2023 was Tough. What’s Changed? In Short, Nothing.

Following 3 years of strong returns for CTAs, 2023 was a challenging environment for both passive commodity and active CTA/Managed Futures strategies (“CTAs”). Indeed, while a far cry from the drawdowns stocks and bonds experienced in 2022 , all four commodity / CTA benchmark indices finished slightly lower in 2023. Read More.

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Fed Rate Pauses - Not What You Think?

Following the US Federal Reserve’s rate pause on November 1st, equity markets rallied – the pause considered a welcome relief from further monetary tightening. Indeed, November’s rally is not inconsistent with initial equity market optimism following previous pauses in rate hikes.

What does history tell us about the ensuing months following a rate hike pause and equity market rally? Stock market performance following the last two pauses in rates hikes above 5% may not be what you expected. Read More.

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India Begins Banning Exports of Critical Agricultural Markets

We believe India is emerging as the largest driver of the emerging commodity supercycle; expected to consume significantly as China did in the early 2000s. As an indication of the timeliness, consider Figure 1. As the Indian population grows and demands more goods, India has begun banning exports of many agricultural markets including Wheat, Rice, and Sugar. Read More.

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Auspice Diversified Delivers “Crisis Alpha” in September, Again.

In this month’s blog we highlight the negative equity correlation and “crisis alpha” of the flagship, Auspice Diversified Trust (“ADT”, “Auspice flagship”, “Auspice Diversified”). In September, Auspice Diversified was up 3.4% versus S&P500 down 4.9%. This is consistent with the positive performance Auspice Diversified has delivered historically, over its 17-year track record, when the S&P500 has been negative.

Read More.

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2023 Portfolio Composition of Five Top Pensions and Endowments: OTPP, UofA, CalSTRS, HIERS, and SURS.

The world has changed since 2020. Quantitative Easing (“QE”) is over, interest rates are no longer pegged at zero, and inflation has normalized closer to the long-term average 3.5% (US CPI) since 1948.

How does one construct a portfolio that can deliver in this environment?

This month we provide a glimpse into the asset class allocation of some of the largest North American pensions and endowments. As demonstrated below, many large institutional investors have 5-10% allocations to commodities and/or Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in the managed futures sector. Read more.

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July Outlook - Agflation

Renewed commodity strength was seen in July many sectors such as agricultural commodities. Auspice expects food prices to follow agricultural prices back up, putting a floor and likely reversal in the recently softening of inflation metrics in some countries. Read more.

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Agflation Acceleration, Coming Soon…

In the Auspice May blog “Agflation” we highlighted a number of commodity food markets breaking out to 10+ year highs. Agricultural commodities continued upwards in June making 12 months highs, and the recent divergence and softening in both food prices is likely temporary in our opinion. Read More.