News and Media
Tim Pickering was featured in a April 7th 2024 Special to the Financial Post.
Like many things within financial markets, the link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. As an example, it is generally understood that central banks raise rates in an attempt to control inflation. Yet what is less understood is that raising rates only affects our spending, the so-called “demand-pull inflation” associated with manufactured goods, whereas it does little to control the “cost-push inflation” associated with commodity prices and wages.
Central banks can’t control commodity prices or their supply since raising rates neither increases short-term commodity supplies nor attracts long-term commodity infrastructure investments.
Another rarely made link is the one between technology and commodities, or new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels and drill bits. But the link is strong and growing stronger, and it may be an important factor in the extension of the current commodity cycle that started in 2020 — cycles that typically last 10 years.
Fund aims to deliver noncorrelated returns, “crisis alpha”, and inflation protection in a new corporate class structure.
CALGARY (February 21, 2024) – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announces the launch of the CI Auspice Alternative Diversified Corporate Class (“the Fund”), a systematic, trend-following, multi-strategy Fund that seeks to provide returns that are uncorrelated with other alternative strategies and fixed income, while also being negatively correlated to equities.
“We are excited to partner with CI GAM in bringing access to the Auspice flagship fund, the most tenured in its category in Canada, and one of few funds to deliver positive returns with negative equity correlation alongside actual commodity exposure” said Tim Pickering, the Auspice Chief Investment Officer and co-founder.
Read more here.
Decarbonization, deglobalization and demographics will help keep inflation higher than historical standards.
Tim Pickering was featured in a Dec 31st 2023 Special to the Financial Post.
"We believe we are on the doorstep of a shift where inflation is clearly not transitory nor persistent, but structural.
The inflation migration has likely only started in commodities following generational catalysts. It is being led by scarcity of resources and workers as demand by the developing world and “build back better” of rich nations exceeds the delicate and narrow supply margin.
Whereas China dominated the narrative of the early 2000s commodity cycle, the three Ds and India will likely lead this decade’s cycle. The demand for commodities and wage pressures is a longer-term shift that can’t be ignored."
Auspice is sponsoring the first ever Fin-tech case competition at the Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, with Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo).
The UofA Business Finance Association and the Business Technology Management Club are teaming up to bring the first-ever Fin-tech case competition.
An expert panel of judges includes professionals from Auspice as well as esteemed professors. This competition is an opportunity for students to sharpen their presentation and teamwork skills while building their network with industry insiders.
Tim Pickering was featured in the September 6th, 2023 edition of Wealth Professional
“The North American fires and hot dry summer have put pressure on an already-pressured commodity supply – from oil to lumber, minerals to grains,” says Tim Pickering, founder, president, and CIO of Auspice Capital. “This, along with massive demand in the fastest-growing middle class market and now largest global population - India - will drive the second wave of the commodity supercycle.”
“The reality is that a lack of broad commodity capital expenditures starting over a decade ago has led to a fragile supply that will continue to be interrupted by things like weather-related events – fire, floods or drought,”
Tim Pickering was featured in the Saturday July 29th edition of the Financial Post.
“Do average citizens feel like daily expenses have gotten cheaper? Not a chance. Groceries cost much more than last year, up 9.1 per cent, which is higher than the increase in May. Core measures of inflation — which strip out volatility — have not eased. Mortgage interest costs were up more than 30 per cent from June 2022.”
“Here is what the central banks won’t tell you, there are two types of inflation: one which they have some control over and one which they do not. Raising rates may be effective for “demand-pull” inflation, constraining the price of services and manufactured goods. By raising rates, we all spend less. However, it is not effective for “cost-push” inflation, which is driven by commodities and wages. They don’t have this lever.”
Auspice Celebrates Success and Stampede!
On July 10th 2023 the Auspice team hosted a Stampede party at the Wildhorse Tent with over one hundred in attendance. Thank you to all our friends, partners, and clients for being part of an incredible event and awesome journey over the past few years.
See picture gallery here.
CALGARY, Alberta, March 02, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (Auspice) today announced the launch of Auspice Diversified Trust (ADT) and Auspice One Fund Trust (AOFT) as public alternative mutual funds that can be invested in by retail investors. The funds, previously only available to institutional and accredited investors on an exempt basis, will maintain their existing track records, including the 16+ year track record of the firm’s longest standing and flagship fund, Auspice Diversified Trust.
“We are excited to launch ADT and AOFT as two publicly traded alternative mutual funds. They were both previously offered on an exempt basis and can now be bought by all retail investors. ADT and AOFT are also well positioned to generate positive returns in this environment with interest rates, inflation, and volatility no longer compressed” said Tim Pickering, President of Auspice. “While there are a number of resource equity funds, there are few funds that provide direct exposure to commodities in Canada, an even fewer managers that have the tenure and track record of Auspice.”
CI Global Asset Management is expanding the range of choice for Canadian investors once more with the introduction of three new ETFs. Among those is the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (CCOM), Canada’s very first multi-commodity ETF launched in partnership with Auspice Capital.
For Tim Pickering, the founder and CIO of Auspice Capital, it’s been a long time coming. “The demand for commodity-based products on a global basis has been significant for a long time, especially in the last few years since COVID hit and inflation became a very relevant issue,” Pickering told Wealth Professional in an interview. “We think it's far, far overdue that a broad commodity product like this, especially one with a long successful track record, exists for Canadian investors in Canada.”
CI Global Asset Management (“CI GAM”) today launched three new investment options – two ESG-focused mandates offering both mutual fund and ETF series, and a commodity-focused liquid alternative ETF.
The CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (“CCOM”) seeks to replicate the performance of the Auspice Broad Commodity Excess Return Index (the “Index”) by investing in financial instruments, including futures contracts and derivatives. The Index uses a quantitative methodology to track a diversified portfolio of commodity futures contracts, or components, across three sectors: agriculture, energy and metals.
“This ETF launch is especially timely, given that commodities are benefiting from supply constraints combined with heightened demand driven in part by infrastructure spending and the transition to a greener and more sustainable society,” Mr. Ferreira said. “As a result, exposure to commodities holds the potential to add inflation protection to investors’ portfolios.
Auspice is proud to share that we have partnered with CI to launch the CI Auspice Broad Commodity ETF (Ticker "CCOM") with a September 27th targeted launch. See the press release here for more.
Auspice Broad Commodity is currently available via the NYSE listed Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity ("COM") ETF and has been a top performer in its category. Notably, the underlying Auspice Broad Commodity Index (ER) has outperformed benchmarks GSCI ER and BCOM by 4.0% and 3.3% annualized with roughly half the volatility and drawdown since 2010 inception. We are proud to partner with CI in bringing this top performing commodity strategy to Canadian Investors. We are also more constructive on the commodity outlook than ever, with the recent pullback potentially offering an attractive entry point for investors. See this month's blog for more.
Danielle Smith hosts Tim Pickering, Founder of Auspice Capital Advisors LTD, for an in-depth discussion on the commodities market in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
“Canadian energy companies have demonstrated leadership in developing greener energy infrastructure.”
“LNG is not a 100 percent solution to our climate problem, but it gets us significantly closer to our goals and should be prioritized versus relying on foreign countries with higher emissions and poor track records.” - Tim Pickering, Auspice Capital President and CIO.
Paul Krake, host of Climate Transformed, chats with Brennan Basnicki, partner at Auspice Capital Advisors, about how investing in commodities fits within an ESG framework as well as whether commodities are an ideal hedge against inflation.
“People have this idea that commodities and ESG are just diametrically opposed, and we get some of that. We've always said producing commodities, particularly in the mining and extraction business, is inherently an invasive process,” Auspice Capital President and CIO Tim Pickering, told Wealth Professional. “But the question is, how do you go about gaining that commodity exposure as an investor?”
The HFM US Performance Awards 2021 took place on the evening of November 4 at the stunning Gotham Hall, New York, bringing together the US hedge fund industry to connect. The awards celebrated hedge fund, CTA and fund of hedge fund performance, encompassing the whole breadth of hedge fund strategy, from credit and equity to macro and managed futures.
We are proud to share that Auspice Diversified was selected as winner of the managed futures (CTA) under $1bn category.
The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF, COM, is one of the only commodity ETFs to have a five-star Morningstar rating and has outperformed all other broad commodity ETFs with significantly less volatility and drawdown.
“Borrowing the trend-following approach from our CTA/managed futures background, the strategy has produced far better risk-adjusted results alongside superior long-term absolute returns by exiting markets that are weak yet participating in commodity upside based on the merits of an individual commodity market — not a broad shotgun approach. Commodity markets are simply too unique for that approach to outperform long-term.”
Auspice Founder Tim Pickering was picked up by Reuters alongside Pierre Andurand, Odey Asset Management and other industry legends.
“Auspice, with a 70% allocation to commodities, more than doubled its assets in a year, from around C$200 million ($165 million) to C$500 million. Tim Pickering, the fund's chief investment officer, said commodities will remain a popular bet as investors seek insurance against inflation.”
Canadian commodities shop Auspice Capital is riding the recovery in commodities to new highs. Auspice is now up 15% across its trading programs year to date through the end of April, according to a performance update for investors reviewed by Opalesque.
Auspice's positive performance builds on the momentum that started last year. The fund ended 2020 up 18.46%..
ETF Trends CEO Tom Lydon discussed the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (COM) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe on the MoneyLife Show.
“Commodities may provide a valuable diversifying component to any long-term investment portfolio. Why commodities? Inflation protection. Commodities represent a significant portion of the CPI’s volatility, resulting in a positive and often outsized response to inflation.”
Commodities potentially stand on the cusp of their most exciting period in 25 years
We have proudly partnered with Walter GAM, a company that shares our entrepreneurial vision for alternative investing, in a strategic relationship that will help accelerate our growth at this critical time of opportunity.
The Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity COM ETF which tracks the Auspice Broad Commodity ER Index has reached 5-star status by Morningstar (here) on a 5 and 10 year basis. More info about the Auspice strategy and Direxion linked fund.
Toronto, Ontario – April 2, 2020 - Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) is providing an update in respect of the previously announced termination of the Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (“CCX”), which trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) under the ticker symbol CCX, on or about May 22, 2020, and the delisting of units of CCX from the TSX on or about May 19, 2020.
As previously indicated, in accordance with applicable securities laws, no further direct subscriptions for units of CCX have been permitted since March 12, 2020.
AUSPICE IS CONCERNED THAT INVESTORS ARE BUYING UNITS OF CCX ON THE TSX AT A TRADING PRICE PER UNIT OF CCX THAT IS WELL ABOVE THE NET ASSET VALUE (“NAV”) PER UNIT OF CCX.
Toronto, Ontario – March 12, 2020 – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announced today that it will be terminating Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (the “ETF”) (ticker symbol: CCX) effective at the close of business on or about May 22, 2020 (the “Termination Date”).
The Direxion Indexed Commodity & Income Strategy Fund which tracks the Auspice Broad Commodity ER Index has reached 5-star status by Morningstar (here) on a 5 and 10 year basis. More info about the Auspice strategy and Direxion linked fund.
Auspice offers investors the purest exposure to the discounted price of Canadian oil through its Canadian Crude Oil Index ETF (CCX.TO). The fund tracks the company’s Canadian Crude Index, described as “a simple, transparent and liquid benchmark for oil produced in Canada.”
Toronto, Ontario – January 16, 2018 – Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. (“Auspice”) announced today that it will be terminating Canadian Natural Gas Index ETF (the “ETF”) (ticker symbol: GAS) effective at the close of business on or about March 23, 2018 (the “Termination Date”).
Capital versus Risk Allocation: What Most Investors Get Wrong in Alternatives.
Direxion has launched the Direxion Auspice Broad Commodity Strategy ETF (Ticker: COM), which seeks to provide total return that exceeds that of the Auspice Broad Commodity Index. The rules-based index attempts to capture trends in 12 diversified commodity markets using a quantitative methodology.
Commentaries and Performance
Auspice Diversified Trust gained 2.95% in February.
The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 2.13% in February.
Auspice Diversified Trust lost 0.49% in December.
The Auspice One Fund Trust gained 2.43% in December.
Auspice Diversified Trust lost 3.35% in November.
The Auspice One Fund Trust lost 0.75% in November.
Auspice Diversified Trust gained 3.37% in September.
Auspice Broad Commodity gained 0.61% in September.
Research
Research is the foundation of what we do. We understand that markets evolve and that we need to adapt. We engage in a process of continuous evaluation and research to identify sources of returns and the methods with which to effectively capture them.
Canadian Crude - Trading the WCS Spread
Canadian Oil Is On Sale
Canadian Oil: The Importance And The Opportunity
Commodities: When is the right time? Benefits and Timing the Cycle
Natural gas and GAS performance to June 2017
Natural gas and GAS performance to May 2017
Crude Performance and CCI outperformance to Feb 2017
Canadian Oil Pure Play
Auspice Canadian Oil Sands Facts 2015
Auspice, 2015
Myths about the Canadian Oil Sands continue to abound. Click here to read some of the facts on our industry, with third-party information and quotations.
Commodity and Inflation
Auspice, 2015
Why the Canadian Crude Index ETF
August, 2015
Current Crude Oil prices may offer opportunities for investors with a long-term view. Please click the image to read our article: “Why CCX now versus other Oil ETFs”
CTA VAI™
The CTA Value Added Index
White Paper - Auspice, Update to June 2015
Commodity Investing: Alpha, Beta, & Something In Between
Published Benefits And Pension Monitor - Auspice, June 2011
Videos & Podcasts
Oct 6, 2017
Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Investors joins Global News, calling the Energy East cancellation “a real blow” to Alberta and Canadian economies.
Jan 5, 2017
A presidential executive order reviving the Keystone XL project is good news, says one strategist, but he adds that what Canada really needs are pipelines to serve other markets entirely. Tim Pickering, chief investment officer at Auspice Capital, explains.
Nov 22, 2016
Tim Pickering, Founder, President & CIO of Auspice joins Bloomberg TV Canada's Mark Bunting to discuss how Trump presidency, pipelines and OPEC will drive Canadian crude oil prices.
Oct 27, 2016
Tim Pickering discusses the improved GAS ETF allowing investors to take a position in Canadian Natural Gas
Sep 21, 2016
Discussion regarding a long term view on Crude Oil with CIO of Auspice, Tim Pickering.
May 17, 2016
A call for Alberta to create an oil hedging strategy.
May 10, 2016
Tim Pickering, founder, with Auspice Capital joins BNN to give us his outlook on Alberta following the wildfires.
March 17, 2016
Tim Pickering, lead portfolio manager at Auspice Capital to talk about the most recent oil price moves and the broader context of the Alberta government failing to protect itself from the steep commodity price declines.
January 27, 2016
Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital says falling Canadian oil production and the prospect of a weaker U.S. dollar are much bigger deal than Saudi machinations.
January 5, 2016
Tim Pickering talks to CBC about the Canadian Crude Index.
December 8, 2015
Auspice Capital's Tim Pickering joins BNN as part of a special presentation looking at where to hide in the energy sector as oil prices tank.
October 14, 2015
Paul Waldie talks with Auspice Capital's Tim Pickering about the Canadian oil industry
October 13, 2015
Join BNN when we speak to Tim Pickering, lead portfolio manager at Auspice Capital about recent macro events in the oil sector and the benefits of the Canadian energy market.
August 5, 2015
Join BNN when we speak to Tim Pickering, lead portfolio manager at Auspice Capital about the long term bull case for investing in Canadian commodities.
July 2, 2015
The Canadian crude oil market is in backwardation - what this means for WCS with Tim Pickering, Lead Portfolio Manager, Auspice Capital.
Apr 21, 2015
Auspice Capital says its new Canadian Crude Index "represents a simple, transparent and liquid benchmark for oil that is produced in Canada." Founder and President Tim Pickering tells us about his plan to launch an ETF based on the bellwether.
December 23, 2014
Tim Pickering, President & CIO, Auspice Capital, joins BNN to offer insight on investing in managed futures and a look at Horizons 'best performing Canadian-listed ETF".
Top Traders Interview
December 21, 2014
What is the difference between simply following a trend and capturing it? Why is growth not consistent and gradual and why do we want it to be?
Tim Pickering chats with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen from Top Traders Unplugged.
Tim Pickering: A Case for the CTA Value Added Index
December 6, 2013
Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital discusses the CTA Value Added Index and makes a case that it is evident, historically, not only in times of financial crisis. Download on iTunes
Ep. 11: Trend Following - Tim Pickering interviewed by Michael Covel
April 27, 2012
Michael Covel talks to Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices.
Tim Pickering Discusses Managed Futures ETF with BNN
December 10, 2010
Alt Invest Blog
This month's Auspice Blog is the full research article, previously summarized and featured in the April 7th, 2024 Financial Post (here), the March 2024 Auspice Blog (here), and an upcoming publication in the summer edition of the Commodity Insights Digest, a publication of Bayes Business School - City, University of London (U.K.). Read more.
The link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. Rarely made is the link of tech and commodities. They seem juxtaposed at opposites ends of the investment spectrum - new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels, and drill-bits. However, we believe the link is strong and growing stronger and may be an important factor in the extension of the commodity cycle that started in 2020, only two years into a typical commodity cycle length. Read more.
The pain consumers have felt from inflation is significant. Amid rising food inflation, Kellogg’s CEO suggests poor families should “eat corn flakes for dinner”. These comments, broadly insensitive, speak to the severity of the real inflation consumers are facing, much of which is masked by headline inflation metrics.
There has been a surge in freight rates and the World Container Index. As discussed in the January 2024 Auspice Blog, the number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. This is likely a key driver in the increase of freight rates, and with the spike just commencing recently in 2024, we likely are on the precipice of higher prices for both raw and manufactured goods. Read more.
The number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. For people under 80 - a large majority of the world's population - we have never lived in a world with so many different conflicts between countries and amongst non state groups such as terrorists’ cells and drugs cartels.
You might think the world is always violent, wars and conflicts are always happening somewhere. This moment can’t be any special. That would be wrong. Read more.
Following 3 years of strong returns for CTAs, 2023 was a challenging environment for both passive commodity and active CTA/Managed Futures strategies (“CTAs”). Indeed, while a far cry from the drawdowns stocks and bonds experienced in 2022 , all four commodity / CTA benchmark indices finished slightly lower in 2023. Read More.
Following the US Federal Reserve’s rate pause on November 1st, equity markets rallied – the pause considered a welcome relief from further monetary tightening. Indeed, November’s rally is not inconsistent with initial equity market optimism following previous pauses in rate hikes.
What does history tell us about the ensuing months following a rate hike pause and equity market rally? Stock market performance following the last two pauses in rates hikes above 5% may not be what you expected. Read More.
We believe India is emerging as the largest driver of the emerging commodity supercycle; expected to consume significantly as China did in the early 2000s. As an indication of the timeliness, consider Figure 1. As the Indian population grows and demands more goods, India has begun banning exports of many agricultural markets including Wheat, Rice, and Sugar. Read More.
In this month’s blog we highlight the negative equity correlation and “crisis alpha” of the flagship, Auspice Diversified Trust (“ADT”, “Auspice flagship”, “Auspice Diversified”). In September, Auspice Diversified was up 3.4% versus S&P500 down 4.9%. This is consistent with the positive performance Auspice Diversified has delivered historically, over its 17-year track record, when the S&P500 has been negative.
The world has changed since 2020. Quantitative Easing (“QE”) is over, interest rates are no longer pegged at zero, and inflation has normalized closer to the long-term average 3.5% (US CPI) since 1948.
How does one construct a portfolio that can deliver in this environment?
This month we provide a glimpse into the asset class allocation of some of the largest North American pensions and endowments. As demonstrated below, many large institutional investors have 5-10% allocations to commodities and/or Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in the managed futures sector. Read more.
Renewed commodity strength was seen in July many sectors such as agricultural commodities. Auspice expects food prices to follow agricultural prices back up, putting a floor and likely reversal in the recently softening of inflation metrics in some countries. Read more.