The market’s recent pullback wasn’t a trend shift—it was a tantrum. But let’s not mistake a tantrum for a turn. The long-term opportunity set remains not just intact but potentially expanded. Global macro drivers—deglobalization, fiscal largesse, commodity scarcity, and inflation uncertainty—are not going away. If anything, they are accelerating. Read More.

“Crisis Alpha” typically occurs during meaningful equity selloffs. When equity markets first start to turn over from highs, trends in equities and other economically sensitive markets are often in transition. As corrections become more meaningful, liquidity driven trading, emotions, and “risk-off” typically leads to non-correlated trend following opportunities. Read more.

In January we illustrated that, contrary to popular belief, Gold has not been an effective inflation hedge. This month we expand on that analysis and also consider more diversified broad commodity solutions. Indeed, we strongly believe a diversified basket of commodities is the best approach alongside discipline risk management. Particularly with recent equity strength, you might be underweight in your commodities and diversifying strategies portfolios. Now many be an opportune buying opportunity, with some proven managers effectively “on sale”. Read more.

If a new wave of inflation pressure is on the horizon, what will prove to be an effective hedge? Looking back at the last five years, we can dispel some myths, and this may provide clarity particularly around the role of Gold and TIPS. As inflation occurred, the worst of the options was TIPS. Over the 5-year period, including inflation and disinflation, TIPS was the worst performer. As inflation occurred, the 2nd worst performer was Gold. Gold has since performed well during the period of disinflation. Read more.

After listening to our institutional and retail investors, Canada’s original and only pioneering 81-102 approved “return stacking / portable alpha” solution, the Auspice One Fund is evolving to serve you better. Instead of overlaying a value-tilted balanced mandate, we are simplifying - for every dollar invested, you get $1 of the long-standing protective CTA/managed futures fund, Auspice Diversified, and $1 of the S&P500. Two for one. As a “Liquid Alt” with daily liquidity. The fee is the same: you only pay for long-term performance net of the monthly fee: management fee or performance, not both. Read more.

Auspice Diversified kicked off the 2020s with strong outperformance versus CTA benchmarks. Our commodity tilted approach led to better crisis and commodity alpha, and performance in times of equity weakness and inflation. Unlike larger, typically financially focused CTA peers, Auspice captured the Q1 2020 selloff, and then pivoted to capture the ensuing rally (commodity and financial) in H2 2020. Outperformance continued into the summer of 2022 when commodities began to consolidate, and equities started to rebound. The net result two years later - essentially the same as the CTA benchmarks. Read More.

"Inexperienced or impatient investors all too often redeem at the bottom of a manager's drawdown, only to witness the surge in performance thereafter."

We originally wrote “On Sale” in 2017.  And at that time, we and other CTAs were indeed, on sale. Do you remember? Probably not. Was it a great opportunity? Arguably, yes. We were further inspired by the seminal paper by fund manager Tom Basso who wrote the paper "When to allocate to a CTA - Buy them on sale". Read More.

In an April 7th Special to the Financial Post “Will The Tech Boom Feed the Commodity Cycle?” Auspice Founder and CIO Tim Pickering described how the link between Big Tech and Commodities is strong and growing stronger (see full article in the April August Blog, here). Notably, Big Tech may be the next big commodity buyer – at a time when supply is increasingly tight and prices are already on the rise. In September we saw what we believe to be the beginning of this long-term driver affect commodity markets. Read More.

Like a kicker in football, Auspice Diversified is a Special Teams player that all portfolios should have. The role is important - it helps win games and in our case, protects portfolios.

As the US market opened on August 5th the flagship Auspice Diversified was up just over 2.5% for the day and month, delivering accretive crisis alpha as it has done so reliably for 18 years. How does this happen? What can you expect from Auspice Diversified and how does it compare to other CTAs during equity selloffs? This month we look at the equity selloff at the beginning of August as a case study to help investors understand how we trade and our “Crisis Alpha” profile. Read More.

This month we provide important context on our recent portfolio expansion of Auspice Diversified, nearly doubling the commodity markets traded with the addition of lower liquidity and lesser correlated markets. Auspice is now at the “sweet spot” where we have the infrastructure to trade a broader, more diverse set of markets. Importantly, we can also provide meaningful exposure to these markets – something our larger peers cannot do. We strongly believe our best years lie ahead of us – but the opportunity is not infinite.

Recently we have witnessed a significant uptick in performance chasing as select commodity markets rallied. In our 18-year experience working with investors, we have seen this before, particularly with headline commodity markets. This is not our first rodeo. 

Indeed, it is a natural and expected outcome given the volatility and corresponding opportunity in commodities. Read More.

This month's Auspice Blog is the full research article, previously summarized and featured in the April 7th, 2024 Financial Post (here), the March 2024 Auspice Blog (here), and an upcoming publication in the summer edition of the Commodity Insights Digest, a publication of Bayes Business School - City, University of London (U.K.). Read more.

The link between commodities and the overall economy and global stock markets is a bit of a mystery. Rarely made is the link of tech and commodities. They seem juxtaposed at opposites ends of the investment spectrum - new school versus old school: the internet, cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) versus picks, shovels, and drill-bits. However, we believe the link is strong and growing stronger and may be an important factor in the extension of the commodity cycle that started in 2020, only two years into a typical commodity cycle length. Read more.

The pain consumers have felt from inflation is significant. Amid rising food inflation, Kellogg’s CEO suggests poor families should “eat corn flakes for dinner”. These comments, broadly insensitive, speak to the severity of the real inflation consumers are facing, much of which is masked by headline inflation metrics. 

There has been a surge in freight rates and the World Container Index. As discussed in the January 2024 Auspice Blog, the number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. This is likely a key driver in the increase of freight rates, and with the spike just commencing recently in 2024, we likely are on the precipice of higher prices for both raw and manufactured goods. Read more.

The number of wars and global conflicts are at the highest levels since WWII. For people under 80 - a large majority of the world's population - we have never lived in a world with so many different conflicts between countries and amongst non state groups such as terrorists’ cells and drugs cartels.

You might think the world is always violent, wars and conflicts are always happening somewhere. This moment can’t be any special. That would be wrong. Read more.

Following 3 years of strong returns for CTAs, 2023 was a challenging environment for both passive commodity and active CTA/Managed Futures strategies (“CTAs”). Indeed, while a far cry from the drawdowns stocks and bonds experienced in 2022 , all four commodity / CTA benchmark indices finished slightly lower in 2023. Read More.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s rate pause on November 1st, equity markets rallied – the pause considered a welcome relief from further monetary tightening. Indeed, November’s rally is not inconsistent with initial equity market optimism following previous pauses in rate hikes.

What does history tell us about the ensuing months following a rate hike pause and equity market rally? Stock market performance following the last two pauses in rates hikes above 5% may not be what you expected. Read More.

We believe India is emerging as the largest driver of the emerging commodity supercycle; expected to consume significantly as China did in the early 2000s. As an indication of the timeliness, consider Figure 1. As the Indian population grows and demands more goods, India has begun banning exports of many agricultural markets including Wheat, Rice, and Sugar. Read More.